We live in an age awash with information, but also with misinformation. From faked Moon landings to secret alien tech and nefarious “chemtrails,” conspiracy theories constantly vie for our attention. What if we cut through the noise using the logic of probability? We would rely on verifiable evidence, not emotional arguments.
That’s precisely what I’ve been exploring. Using a systematic, almost mathematical approach to weigh the likelihood of extraordinary claims against the mountain of established fact. Imagine a courtroom. In this setting, the burden of proof rests firmly on the accuser. An impartial algorithm acts as the judge. Large Language Models (LLM’s) operate using probability. The entire structure of their program relies on calculating things above 95% accuracy. The “thinking” LLM’s do is completely based on logic, a sound mathematical principle. I ran popular conspiracy theories into one of these models, Google’s Gemini. It has been trained on essentially the entirety of human knowledge. This way, we can compare the historical context and probability to the conspiracy claim. Instantaneously researching all aspects of truth and falsities about the topic and calculating the realistic likelihood for the claim.
The Problem: Unreliable Memory Meets “CGI” Confusion
Many conspiracy theories arise from modern events that are disputed as hoaxes. In my findings this seems to stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of history, technology, and basic science. It results from a disregard for specific details that an unreliable memory encourages. Conspiracy adherents seem to be incapable of remembering historical chains of events leading to the prevalence of anachronisms.
The modern catch-all, “Oh, that’s just CGI!” or “It’s a deep fake!”, perfectly illustrates this problem. But let’s rewind a moment:
- 1969: The Moon Landing. CGI as we know it simply didn’t exist. Early computer graphics were rudimentary lines on a screen. Toy Story, the first feature-length, fully CGI film, wouldn’t arrive until 1995. Even 1972’s Pong was groundbreaking for its era.
- 1996: Beast Wars Transformers. Remember how polygonal and simplistic those looked? That was modern for television CGI just 28 years ago! The idea that such technology was used to create photo-realistic Moon footage decades earlier is, frankly, absurd.
- Deep Fakes: This sophisticated technology, relying on advanced neural networks, is a product of the 2010s, not the 1960s.
Claims of 1960s CGI or deep fakes aren’t just wrong. They represent a fundamental anachronism suggesting that technology existed before its time. It’s like claiming Julius Caesar fought with a laser gun. Mathematically, the probability of such a technological leap going completely unrecorded is infinitesimally small. It is improbable that it would be patented and commercialized by the entire global tech industry decades before it was.
Case Study 1: Alien Tech & Area 51
Let’s tackle a classic. Some people believe that the microwave oven or other 20th-century advancements came from reverse-engineered alien technology at Area 51.
The Conspiracy Claim: Secret alien spacecraft crashed, and advanced technology was reverse-engineered, giving us things like the microwave.
The Verifiable Evidence:
- Microwave Oven: Invented in 1945 by Percy Spencer at Raytheon. It was an accidental byproduct of his work on magnetrons for radar technology during WWII. The timeline is documented, the discovery was accidental, and it built directly on established electromagnetic physics.
- Area 51: Declassified documents confirm it was a highly secretive flight testing facility. It was used for advanced reconnaissance aircraft like the U-2 spy plane and SR-71 Blackbird’s predecessor. Many early UFO sightings were later attributed to these groundbreaking, yet entirely human-made, aircraft flying at unprecedented altitudes.
- Official Reports: Even recent Pentagon reports investigating UFOs (now UAPs) have stated they’ve found no verifiable evidence of recovered or reverse-engineered extraterrestrial technology.
The Probability: The probability that a global conspiracy has successfully planted Percy Spencer’s documented work and fabricated Raytheon’s history, while secretly deploying alien tech for decades, is astronomically low. The probability that simple, human-driven scientific evolution led to the microwave is effectively 1.0.
Case Study 2: The Moon Landing Hoax
This is arguably the most famous conspiracy theory. It suggests that the 1969 Apollo Moon landing was faked. Some even say Stanley Kubrick was involved.
The Conspiracy Claims: Lack of stars in photos. A waving flag in a vacuum. Inconsistent shadows. Some argue that only a master filmmaker could have pulled it off.
The Verifiable Evidence (The Overwhelming Counter-Argument):
- Moon Rocks: Apollo missions returned 382 kilograms of Moon rocks. These have been analyzed by independent scientists worldwide. Their composition, age, and isotopic signatures are unique to the Moon and distinct from Earth rocks. Faking this amount of scientifically unique material would be a greater feat than going to the Moon itself.
- Laser Ranging Retroreflectors: Astronauts left mirror arrays on the Moon. Scientists today use these to bounce lasers off the Moon and precisely measure the Earth-Moon distance. This is tangible, working hardware still on the Moon.
- Orbital Photos: The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has photographed the landing sites. It clearly shows the descent stages of the Lunar Modules. Rover tracks and even astronaut footprints are visible from orbit decades later.
- Global Involvement: Faking the landing would have required silencing hundreds of thousands of people involved in NASA and its contractors. Crucially, the Soviet Union was also involved. They were tracking the missions and would have been keen to expose a hoax. The logistical probability of such a massive, airtight, multi-generational secret is virtually zero.
- The Punch: While anecdotal, Buzz Aldrin’s infamous punch to a persistent conspiracy theorist speaks volumes. A WWII veteran and human hero, after decades of harassment, simply got fed up. His anger is an expected human reaction to relentless, baseless accusations, not evidence of a cover-up.
The Probability: To believe the Moon landing was faked requires dismissing physical Moon rocks. One must also dismiss ongoing scientific experiments, orbital evidence, and the testimony of countless individuals. At the same time, they must believe in an impossible, perfectly executed global conspiracy. The probability of the landing being real is effectively 1.0.
Case Study 3:
Chemtrails vs. Contrails
Here, we dive into a phenomenon observable by anyone looking up at the sky.
The Conspiracy Claim: Commercial airlines are secretly dumping harmful chemicals into the atmosphere for various nefarious reasons, creating “chemtrails.”
The Verifiable Evidence (Simple Physics):
- The Cold Soda Can Analogy: Imagine you take a cold can of soda from the fridge. It’s a hot, humid day outside. Moisture in the air condenses instantly on the cold can, forming visible water droplets.
- Jet Engines at Altitude: Jet engines at high altitudes (above 25,000 feet) expel hot exhaust gases containing water vapor. The surrounding air is incredibly cold (often below -40°C) and often supersaturated with moisture.
- Instant Condensation: Just like the soda can, the hot water vapor from the engine hits the super-cold air. It condenses and freezes into visible ice crystals. This is a contrail (condensation trail) – a natural, well-understood meteorological phenomenon.
- Persistence Explained: The duration of a contrail depends entirely on atmospheric humidity and wind. In dry air, they evaporate quickly. In humid air, they linger, spread, and can even form cirrus-like clouds, acting as nuclei for condensation.
- Expert Consensus & Logistics: A 2016 survey of 77 atmospheric scientists was conducted. It found that 76 had seen no evidence of a secret spraying program. Logistically, it’s absurd to believe such a scenario. It’s highly unlikely that thousands of commercial pilots, ground crews, and airline executives would all join in a secret operation involving chemical dumping. Coordinating such an operation would be nearly impossible not to mention unprofitable and unsustainable over decades.
The Probability: It is extremely unlikely that all known atmospheric physics is wrong. The chance that thousands of aviation professionals are silently executing a planet-spanning chemical attack is infinitesimally small. This is when compared to the probability of simple condensation.
The Power of Probability
This highlights a critical point: just like the 99% consensus in climate science is mathematically impossible to be wrong given the overwhelming data. The probability of these conspiracy theories being true approaches zero when held up against verifiable evidence.
The “miracle graph” perfectly summarizes this:
- Before Cameras: Miracles and Bigfoot sightings were common.
- After Cameras: Blurry photos and easily faked images created some ambiguity.
- After Digital Cameras & Photoshop: Any compelling “supernatural” image is instantly suspect as a fabrication. The tools to create them are so ubiquitous. The metadata of digital images is very verifiable even if AI is used.
The same principle applies to historical and scientific claims. The more thoroughly an event or phenomenon is documented and verified, the lower the probability of a false conspiracy. Thorough scientific understanding further reduces this probability.
By systematically applying critical thinking, we can effectively discredit most of these conspiracy theories. A respect for verifiable evidence and a basic understanding of probability are also crucial. It’s not about being a debunker for the sake of it. It is about grounding our understanding of the world in what is truly proven. Focusing on observable truths and recognizing obvious misinformation makes for a more media savvy and grounded populace.
Attribution: By Gemini and the principles of verifiable evidence.
